Moral luck and genocide
I've been thinking about moral luck a lot with respect to this genocide. Why yes, I believe I will link to the Wikipedia article. The classic example from the article is that two people might go to the same bar, get shitfaced to the same amount, both choose to drive but one will hit and kill a pedestrian and the other won't. And we will tend to judge that person much much harsher even though all that separates the is luck. The moral universe smiled on one person and frowned on the other.
This isn't about whether that's right or wrong, it's about appreciating that the moral universe has smiled on most of us. I'm not sure what do to with this although it is humbling (or at times chilling). It's not a new concept, "there but for the grace of god go I" has been around for ages. With genocides though, it hits different.
Let's start with Russia's genocide in Ukraine. I've experienced enough Russian culture that I do have some Russian public figures/celebrities in my sphere of consciousness. I'm old enough that many of them (eg. people I might have seen in movies as a child) are dead. Many of the ones that are still alive support Russia's genocide. Not all, and I would still have to hope that the percentage of people in the arts who support it is lower than in the Russian general public. But it's there. So I'm used to being disappointed. But there is a converse relief when I find out that someone died relatively recently but before 2022. The moral universe smiled on them. Even if there was a good chance that, had they lived, they would have failed that moral test, turns out they didn't. Their legacy is a little bit better for it, even if it's just because of moral luck.
Reminds me of my favourite quote from Breaking Bad, where Walter White is at his most self-aware.
That night. I should never have left home. Never gone to your house...I was at home watching TV. Some nature program about elephants...and Skyler and Holly were in another room. I can hear them on the baby monitor. She was singing a lullaby. Oh, if I had just lived right up to that moment...and not one second more. That would have been perfect.
Now to Israel's genocide. It's very sad to acknowledge that many people have become morally lucky by dying before its current phase because they would have probably been in support of it. My moral luck was different. I'm simply old enough that I had time to step away from it gradually. I went to a high school that explicitly identifies capital-z Zionism as one of its core reasons for being. I knew from the start that a lot about what I was being taught/persuaded off was bullshit. But I still imbibed a lot from there (and from people in the community) and so I still had plenty opinions I'd find abhorrent now. But I had time.
Part of this was learning more about the world in general. Part was understanding Israel more specifically. The litany of Israel's bombardments of Gaza since 2006 made it easier as did the fact that each one was generally less justifiable than the previous. By the time "Operation Swords of Iron" had come around, it was 22 years since the last time I was in a captive audience of pro-Israel talking points. So, I thought, how would someone who's in a similar school right now fare? What tools would they have at their disposal?
It feels gross to see it in religious terms, as if I was "saved". But I can't help but feel a parallel to the Christian idea that salvation is not about merit. Certainly nobody can claim merit alone for any non-shitty views they have.
I don't think seeing this through moral luck makes a huge practical difference. Except to remind me about unpredictability. All those people who died before they could be tested (for any particular thing you might be thinking of)? Had they lived, some of them would have passed the test. Maybe a minority but you don't know which ones. Meaning maybe it's not always completely pointless to invest in a person.
How much time is worth investing though, that's another story.